The Global Warming Debate

Sunday, August 2, 2009

 

Early on in the Global Warming debate I heard (and believed) that in the worst case scenario sea levels could rise by as much as fifty feet. Such an event would be an unfathomable disaster. Now I realize just how ludicrous that "report" was. The only way that sea levels could rise fifty feet is for all of Antarctica to melt. That's simply not going to happen on any kind of time scale over which we need to make decisions. I now look back with embarrassment at my credulity.

I have followed this debate extensively. I am, by no means, an expert, but I am informed. My mind is now firmly NOT made up. In fact I have drawn only one conclusion. The Global Warming debate has become a religious war. There are two great belief systems at war, and they have names. They are the Deniers and the Alarmists. Like most religious wars the minions mindlessly follow the doctrine. I feel reasonably sure that at least 95% of the population has no clue just what a model is, and yet models are the weapons of choice in these battles.

Like most conflicts, despite how we may feel when in the trenches, the clerics of these factions are not good or evil. I'm confident there are very few nefarious conspiracies. There are just people who have rationalized away the bad data with firmly held beliefs. We all do this from time to time. Data seems too often to be a four letter word.

It's human nature which has put the worst spin on this. Take any group of people and we always find a way to create an Us and a Them. Conforming to and proselytizing beliefs seems to be as old as the species. What better way to prove that we're right than to convert a non-believer. Thus we have the Deniers who deny that global warming is a man made evil that we must repent for and the Alarmists who shout that "the sky is warming" from every rooftop. The only thing that is certain is that science has left the building.

It is *SOOO* hard not to look at this July in Cincinnati where we've had the coolest July on record, and conclude that the Church of Holy Deniers is looking mightily good about now. But that would just be me picking the data that suits a particular view so I will ignore (and enjoy) this beautifully cool weather. I can only hope that for as long as possible I will hold out against these factions and continue simply to be a Disarmist.